[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 23 09:50:19 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only two B-class
flares, a B4.9 at 1331UT and a B5.7 at 2016UT, were recorded.
A partial halo CME was observed near the solar north pole at
2142UT/21 September, but it could not be related to any other
event and it seems to be a back side event. This CME, therefore,
does not appear to be earthward directed. Region 464(N06E49)
is still the largest region on the disk. The solar wind speed
remained between 550 and 600 km/s (approx) for most part of
the day and decreased to approximately 500 km/s by the time
of this report. The solar wind stream seems to be showing
signs of weakening. However, a coronal hole, which is spread
east-west and is in a geoeffective position, may still keep
the solar wind stream strengthened during the next two days.
The interplanetary magnetic field kept fluctuating between
approximately +5 and -5 nT almost the whole day- mostly
remaining southwards. The solar activity is expected to
remain at low levels during the next three days. However,
there may be a slight chance of an isolated M-flare from
region 464.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Mostly quiet to active.
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 232- ---3
Darwin 11 23-- ---4
Townsville 9 223- ---3
Learmonth 9 223- ---3
Canberra 9 232- ---3
Hobart 9 232- ---3
Casey(Ant) 17 4-2- ---3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 SEP :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 21 4344 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
24 Sep 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
25 Sep 15 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet to
active levels today. This was due to the continued effect of
the coronal hole induced high speed solar wind stream. The
geomagnetic activity may remain at mostly unsettled to active
levels during the next two days. Please note that we had a
data flow problem from some stations today and this report
is based on the data that was available for the day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be
observed during the next two days, especially at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of significant degradations over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 60 near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 60 near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 65 about 5% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 580 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 181000 K
Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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