[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 19 09:48:56 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Two C-class flares,
a C1.0 at 0801UT and a C2.9 at 2151UT, were observed. The
coronal hole effect is still going strong. The solar wind
speed rose from 750 to 850 km/s (approx) during the first
half of the UT day and then kept fluctuating between 800
and 850 km/s (approx) during the rest of the day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
kept fluctuating between +5 and -7 nT (approx) almost the
whole day. The solar wind stream is expected to remain
strengthened due to the coronal hole effect for approximately
two more days, showing gradual weakening during this period.
The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels during
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 31 4445 5434
Darwin 32 4455 5334
Townsville 31 4445 5433
Learmonth 32 3435 5543
Canberra 34 4545 5434
Hobart 29 4545 4334
Casey(Ant) 37 4455 45-5
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 SEP :
Townsville 14 (Quiet)
Learmonth 62 (Active)
Canberra 135 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 61 5557 7445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 30 Mostly active. Isolated minor storm periods possible.
20 Sep 25 Mostly unsettled to active.
21 Sep 20 Mostly unsettled to active.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 16
September and is current for interval 17-19 September.
The geomagnetic activity remained enhanced at 'unsettled
to minor storm' level today due to the continued effect
of the coronal hole induced high speed solar wind stream.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced
during the next three days, but with a continuous gradual
decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
20 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
21 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected during the next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by upto 30% over the UT day with periods
of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 40 Depressed 5 to 10%/Near predicted monthly values.
20 Sep 45 near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on
16 September and is current for interval 18-19 September.
Mild to moderately depressed MUFS and degraded conditions,
more likely in the southern Aus/NZ regions, are expected
during the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 724 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 347000 K
Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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