[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 17 09:15:07 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: **RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 2229UT Confirmed lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: The M1 event had an unusual flat xray profile was initially
not optically correlated. Culgoora H-alpha imagery showed no
on disk flare activity. SEC SXI imager is off line and SOHO
imagery website latest EIT195 images were up to around 16UT.
However, post flare looping became visible in Culgoora H-alpha
imagery on the west limb after around 2250UT, and the event
appears to be from departing region 456 on/behind the west limb.
The unusual xray flare profile could be due to the event being
from behind the limb. A weak proton enhancement is possible over
next 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 350km/sec
to 500km/sec, indicating coronal hole wind stream entry. A minor
discontinuity in solar wind speed was observed at around 0930 UT,
superimposed on this gradual increase. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mild to moderately
southward -5 to -10nT over the UT day, reaching -15nT during
interval 10-17UT. There is some ambiguity as to whether this
southward IMF is due to the earlier than expected coronal hole
wind stream entry and/or followed presumed weak shock like
discontinuities from recent filament eruptions observed
in the US ACE solar wind data yesterday.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 30 4244 5543
Darwin 41 5-54 5544
Townsville 26 3234 554-
Learmonth 29 4233 5554
Canberra 36 3244 6554
Hobart 30 3344 -553
Casey(Ant) 16 3333 4332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2112 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 30 Active to minor storm
18 Sep 25 Active to minor storm
19 Sep 18 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 16 September
and is current for interval 17-19 September. The geomagnetic
field activity was earlier than expected with the Earth entering
a coronal hole wind stream over past 24 hours. Active to minor
storm conditions expected next two days. A possible weak (27nT)
impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1339UT
on 16 Sep, possible associated with recent filament eruptions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event. Weak event possible next 24 hours.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
18 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
19 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions observed earlier than expected at
mid to high latitudes. Degraded conditions expected next two days.
Increased absorption possible next 24 hours polar regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values first half UT day.
Spread and absorption observed second half UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 40 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 40 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 16 September
and is current for interval 18-19 September. Mild to moderately
depressed MUFS and degraded conditions for southern Aus/NZ region
expected next few days. Northern region MUFs expected to remain
mostly near predicted monthly values and are expected to be
only mildly effected by overnight geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 28200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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