[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 29 10:30:45 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 150/105
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. Three C-class
flares were observed- the largest flare being a C3.6 at
0913UT from region 508(S19W45). The solar wind speed
fluctuated between 400 and 440 km/s (approx) throughout
the UT day today. The solar wind stream may get slightly
strengthened due to the effect of a transequatorial coronal
hole during the next few days. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mildly
positive for most part of the UT day today. Region 507(N07W58)
is still the largest region on the disk and can produce
isolated M-flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods recorded at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 2213 3212
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 7 2212 3213
Learmonth 9 3213 3212
Culgoora 5 2112 3113
Canberra 6 1212 3212
Hobart 7 2222 3112
Casey(Ant) 14 ---4 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 10 2222 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 9 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible, especially on high latitudes.
30 Nov 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible, especially on high latitudes.
01 Dec 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible, especially on high latitudes.
COMMENT: The effect of the transequatorial coronal hole,
that is taking geoeffective position, may cause slight
strengthening in the solar wind stream from 29 November
to 01 December. This may result in a slight rise in
geomagnetic activity on these days. Unsettled periods may
be observed on most locations during this period with
possibility of isolated active periods- especially at
high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on low and mid latitudes during the next three days. Minor
to mild depressions and degradations are possible at high
latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 115 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Nov 112 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 10%.
01 Dec 112 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in the Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B7.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 107000 K
Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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