[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 28 10:20:24 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few C-class
flares were observed- most of them from region 508(S19W32).
Today's largest flare, a C9.6, also came from region 508 at
0820UT. A partial halo CME was also observed from the
South-Western limb around 1042UT, but it could not be
associated to any other activity and, therefore, seems to
be a back side event. The solar wind speed gradually decreased
further from 500 to 420 km/s (approx) during the UT day as
the coronal hole effect declined further. The solar wind
stream is expected to weaken further on 28 November. However,
another small coronal hole is taking geoeffective position
and may cause a slight strengthening in the solar wind stream
on 29 and 30 November. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mildly positive
almost the whole day. Region 507(N07W44) is still the largest
region on the disk. Both the regions 507 and 508 hold potential
for isolated M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet on most
locations. Isolated unsettled and active periods recorded at
high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 2212 1022
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 4 2211 1022
Learmonth 4 2211 1022
Culgoora 4 2211 1022
Canberra 5 2222 1022
Hobart 4 2222 1012
Casey(Ant) 11 4--3 2123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 NOV :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 9 2222 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 8 Mostly quiet.
29 Nov 10 Mostly quiet. Unsettled periods possible.
30 Nov 10 Mostly quiet. Unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Due to a continued weakening of the solar wind
stream with the decline of coronal hole activity, the
geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet
level on most locations on 28 November. A small coronal hole,
that is taking geoeffective position, may cause slight
strengthening of the solar wind stream on 29 and 30 November.
This may result in a slight rise in geomagnetic activity on
these days. Unsettled periods may be observed on 29 and
30 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
all locations during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov 118 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov 115 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Nov 115 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal in the
Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 141000 K
Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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