[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 12 10:20:12 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 1351UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 115/66 130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed now at 800km/sec with the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remaining milldy
southward (5nT), fluctuating to 10nT south at times. The M1 flare
was from dolar region 498 located in the far south-west quadrant.
The flare was associated with a reported slow Type II radio sweep
(481km/sec). LASCO C3 imagery shows a predominately south-west
directed mass ejection first visible 1518UT. There appeared to
be little expansion, so only an outside chance for a glancing blow
arrival on late 13 early 14 Nov. Also, emission can be seen on
the north-east limb in LASCO 284 imagery indicating the probable
return of previously active region 484 (M and X flare producer).
Note:
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 484 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 13 Nov. Chance for high activity
after this date.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 36 4445 5544
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 37 3455 5544
Learmonth 38 4345 6544
Culgoora 31 3445 5444
Canberra 36 4445 5544
Hobart 43 4546 5454
Casey(Ant) 34 5-54 4443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 NOV :
Townsville 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 84 (Minor storm)
Culgoora 112 (Major storm)
Canberra 140 (Severe storm)
Hobart 170 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 30 4445 5444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
13 Nov 25 Active to Minor storm
14 Nov 18 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 10-13 November. Extended period of
coronal hole wind stream induced activity expected over coming
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
13 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
14 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Extended period of degraded HF communications quality
for mid to high latitudes expected due to coronal hole wind stream.
Low latitude HF communication expected to remain normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 20% to near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 10/60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 25/60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 45/65 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
Note: left of slash is forecast for southern Aus/NZ region
right of slash is forecast for Northern Aus region
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 11-13 November. Depressed MUFs again
observed since local dawn this morning for southern Aus/NZ region.
Northern Aus region MUFS mostly near normal or only mildly depressed.
Depression associated with geomagnetic activity induced by coronal
hole high speed wind stream. Extended interval of lower than
normal MUFs for southern Aus/NZ region probable over next few
days. Depressed MUF conditions may ease slightly after 15 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 555 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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