[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 11 10:15:09 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed started the UT day 10 Nov at around
500km/sec, then began to slightly ease, reaching a minimum of
about 420km/sec at around 10UT. Solar wind speed then gradually
increased again ending the day at almost 700km/sec. Elevated
wind speed conditions are expected to persist and are due to
a solar coronal hole wind stream. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field remains mildly southward (5
to 10nT) as is expected to remain so whilst the Earth is within
the wind stream from this coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 21 3334 4444
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 18 3333 4434
Learmonth 23 4334 4444
Culgoora 15 3333 3334
Canberra 20 3334 4344
Hobart 21 3334 4444
Casey(Ant) 32 4554 3353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 NOV :
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Culgoora 88 (Minor storm)
Canberra 151 (Severe storm)
Hobart 170 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25 2344 6443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
12 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
13 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 10-13 November. Extended period of
coronal hole wind stream induced activity expected over coming
week.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
12 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
13 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Extended period of degraded HF communications quality
for mid to high latitudes expected due to coronal hole wind stream.
Low latitude HF communication expected to remain normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values
over the UT day. Spread F and blanketing sporadic
E observed at some sites.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 60 near predicted monthly values (North Aus)
11 Nov 20 depressed 10 to 20% (south Aus/NZ)
12 Nov 20/60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 20/60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 85 was issued on 9 November
and is current for interval 10-11 November. Depressed MUFs again
observed since local dawn this morning for southern Aus/NZ region.
Northern Aus region MUFS mostly near normal or only mildly depressed.
Depression associated with geomagnetic activity induced by coronal
hole high speed wind stream. Extended interval of lower than
normal MUFs for southern Aus/NZ region probable over next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: A9.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 560 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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