[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 29 09:45:20 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.3/2B 27/2307UT Confirmed lower West Pacific (2305-2330)
X3.6 0027UT Confirmed all West Pacific (0025-0100)
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Magnetically complex and compact solar region 365 located
in the south-west solar quadrant, produced the two X class flares.
These events were associated with Type II radio sweeps and mass
ejections. At least one of the X class flares produced protons
with 10MeV solar proton flux levels currently just below event
threshold at time of issue of this report. Two shocks are expected
to arrive on 30/31 May. Background solar wind speed are currently
elevated at 650km/sec, due to a coronal hole now located in the
western solar hemisphere. A much larger coronal hole is visible
in the Sun's eastern hemisphere and is expected to produce an
extended period of elevated wind speed from 02 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 26 5344 4434
Darwin 20 4334 4334
Townsville 26 5344 4434
Learmonth 30 5335 4533
Canberra 26 4345 4434
Hobart 21 43-- ----
Casey(Ant) 29 5443 ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 MAY :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 50 (Unsettled)
Canberra 106 (Major storm)
Hobart NA
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 26 4433 4345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 20 Unsettled to active with minor storm periods
possible.
30 May 60 Minor to Major storm levels
31 May 17 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly unsettled
to active levels with possible minor storm periods due to high
speed wind stream effects from a solar coronal hole. Major storm
levels are expected on 30 May due to recent mass ejections associated
with X class flare activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event. However, 10MeV solar proton flux levels
currently just below event thresholds. PCA possible
later today.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
31 May Fair-normal Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are currently mildly degraded due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. A strong degradation in
HF condtions is expected on 30 May due to recent mass ejection
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 60 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20%
31 May 30 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 28 May
and is current for interval 28-30 May. HF conditions are expected
to be mildly depressed/degraded for southern regions after local
dawn this morning. Northern Aus region MUFs currently unaffected
and near predicted monthly values. However, a much stronger period
of depression and degradation is expected on 30/31 May due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent coronal mass ejections
associated with X class flares. This depression/degradation may
extend to lower latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts were observed in
association with the X class flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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