[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0308UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.7    0626UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X1.5    2307UT  probable   all    West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94
COMMENT: Solar region 365 has produced M- and X-class flare activity 
during 27 May. Further significant flare activity is expected 
from this region for 28 May. The X-class flare observed at 2309UT 
was associated with a Type II radio sweep. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 27 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   3323 3354
      Darwin              15   -323 3344
      Townsville          15   3323 3345
      Learmonth           17   3223 3354
      Canberra            17   3223 3354
      Hobart              13   2323 3244
      Casey(Ant)          26   3333 4364
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18   4343 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May    20    Unsettled to active with minor storm periods 
                possible. 
29 May    20    Unsettled to active with minor storm periods 
                possible. 
30 May    20    Unsettled to active with minor storm periods 
                possible. 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly unsettled 
to active levels with possible minor storm periods over the next 
few days due to coronal hole and recent flare/CME activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mildly degraded at 
times over the next few days due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 May    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May    75    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
29 May    70    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
30 May    70    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mildly degraded for 
southern regions at times over the next few days due to anticipated 
elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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