[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 12 11:09:44 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: There is the small chance of an M-class flare from solar
regions 296, 304 and 306.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 11 3233 2323
Darwin 9 2232 2323
Townsville 9 2232 2323
Learmonth 10 3232 2322
Canberra 9 2233 2312
Hobart 11 2333 2312
Casey(Ant) 18 4-53 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 MAR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16 2333 4334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 20 Unsettled with active and possible minor storm
periods.
13 Mar 20 Unsettled with active and possible minor storm
periods.
14 Mar 20 Unsettled with active and possible minor storm
periods.
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the presence of a high
speed coronal hole solar wind stream which was not expected to
arrive until 14-15 March. The coronal hole solar wind stream
is anticipated to persist for the next few days. Active and possible
minor storm levels are expected over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
13 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible for mid-high
latitudes for the next few days as the result of anticipated
elevated geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 90 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
13 Mar 90 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 90 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible for southern
regions for the next few days as the result of anticipated elevated
geomagnetic activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 75400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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