[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 144/98


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2233 3323
      Darwin              10   2222 3334
      Townsville           9   2222 3323
      Learmonth           14   2233 3433
      Canberra             9   2222 3323
      Hobart              13   2233 4323
      Casey(Ant)          17   4-43 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   2431 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhaced at all
stations, with depressions of up to 15% since local dawn
for southern regions.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar   110    Isolated depressions of 5-15% at times to enhanced 
                5-10% 
12 Mar   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
13 Mar   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however, isolated small depressions are 
possible at times for southern regions for 11 March. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    73200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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