[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            160/114
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters are returning towards typical 
background values as the high speed coronal hole solar wind stream 
subsides. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3223 3223
      Darwin               8   3222 2224
      Townsville           9   3222 3224
      Learmonth            9   3222 3223
      Canberra            10   3223 3222
      Hobart              11   3233 3222
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--4 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              64   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25   4444 5333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar    12    Unsettled 
09 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet 
to unsettled with possible isolated active periods for 8-10 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however, isolated small depressions are 
possible at times for mid-latitude regions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Mar    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      with isolated depressions of 15-30% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Moslty near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar   100    Isolated depressions of 10-20% at times to enhanced 
                5-10% 
09 Mar   110    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
10 Mar   110    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however, isolated small depressions are 
possible at times for southern regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 519 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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