[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters suggest the high speed coronal 
hole solar wind stream is slowly abating. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3233 4433
      Darwin              16   3223 4433
      Townsville          16   3223 443-
      Learmonth           22   3223 5534
      Canberra            17   3224 4433
      Hobart              20   3334 4433
      Casey(Ant)          18   4343 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   3234 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
08 Mar    12    Unsettled 
09 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly unsettled 
levels with possible active periods for 07 March. Activity is 
expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for 8-9 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however, mild depressions may be observed 
at times for mid-latitude regions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Mar    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% at times during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar    95    depressed 10 to 20%/enhanced 5 to 10% 
08 Mar   105    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar   110    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however, mild depressions may be observed 
at times for southern regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:   111000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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