[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M2.5/1N   0410UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Region 422 near the solar north west limb produced an 
impulsive M2 level flare at 0410UT. No CME or radio sweep was 
reported in association with this event. The flare was optically 
observed as an 1 Normal flare on Culgoora H-alpha imagery. Solar 
wind speed currently fast at 800km/sec due to south polar extension 
coronal hole. Sustained elevated wind speed conditions expected 
today. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 30 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      24   3444 5334
      Darwin              23   3434 5334
      Townsville          21   3334 5332
      Learmonth           27   4345 5334
      Canberra            27   3445 5334
      Hobart              24   3445 4334
      Casey(Ant)          28   4543 4--4
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JUL : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           124   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             180   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             36   4544 5555     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul    30    Active to Minor storm 
01 Aug    20    active 
02 Aug    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 30 July and 
is current for interval 30 July to 1 August. Coronal hole wind 
stream effects are expected to continue today, but should start 
to decline after 01 Aug. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
01 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expected periods of degraded HF conditions at mid to 
high latitudes for the next two days in association with coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jul    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
01 Aug    70    near predicted monthly values 
02 Aug    70    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild deppressions of 15% expected after local dawn for 
southern Aus/NZ region today. Also, mild degradations may be 
experienced during local night hours. Northern Aus region MUFs 
expected to remain near predicted monthly values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 752 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   336000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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