[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 30 09:51:30 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3/1F 0139UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Region 421 near the solar east limb produced an impulsive
M1 level flare at 0128UT. No CME or radio sweep was reported
in association with this event. This region may produce further
isolated M level flares today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 28 3444 5445
Darwin 23 3434 4445
Townsville 21 3334 4445
Learmonth 26 3333 5455
Canberra 25 3444 4445
Hobart 25 3444 4445
Casey(Ant) 35 4443 6--5
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JUL :
Townsville 49 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 116 (Major storm)
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 2234 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 40 Minor storm
31 Jul 30 Active to Minor storm
01 Aug 20 active
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
today at low to mid latitudes with isolated minor storm periods.
Minor to major storm periods were observed at high latitudes.
Solar wind speed has remained elevated at 700-800 km/s and Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has exhibited
mild fluctuations of about 10 nT about neutral, with a sustained
period of southward bias during the mid part of the UT day. Coronal
hole wind stream effects are expected to continue, but should
start to decline after 01 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Fair Fair-Poor Poor
31 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
01 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Equatorial spread-F observed local evening hours. Mild
depressions observed after local dawn N. Aus regions. Extended
periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes, especially
local night hours. Expect periods of degraded HF conditions at
mid to high latitudes for the next few days in association with
coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 10-30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Mild depressions after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values with periods of
disturbance at high latitudes.
01 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values with periods of
disturbance at high latitudes.
COMMENT: Equatorial spread-F observed local evening hours. Daytime
spread-F observed Antarctic regions. Periods of strong absorption
observed S. Ocean with isolated periods of mild absorption in
Antarctic region, local night hours. Mild depressions observed
at low latitudes after local dawn today. Expect periods of ionospheric
depression at mid to high latitudes for the next few days in
association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 656 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 227000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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