[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: No significant flare activity was reported today. The 
dominant feature on the visible solar disk is an equatorial coronal 
hole extending in latitude and south longitude. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   4434 3222
      Darwin              17   4433 3322
      Townsville          16   4433 3222
      Learmonth           22   5434 3322
      Canberra            14   3334 3222
      Hobart              17   4334 4221
      Casey(Ant)          21   4533 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           42   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            78   (Active)
      Hobart             100   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             26   3333 4555     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul    25    active 
29 Jul    30    Active to Minor storm 
30 Jul    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 26 July and 
is current for interval 27-29 July. Minor to major storm periods 
observed at high latitudes and unsettled to active conditions 
at low to mid latitudes due to a coronal hole high speed solar 
wind stream. A sustained period of southward IMF Bz polarity 
ended abruptly about 0430UT. Solar wind speed declined somewhat 
in the latter half of the UT day. Coronal hole wind stream effects 
are expected to continue for at least two days due to the longitudinal 
extent of the coronal hole. A possible weak transient observed 
in solar wind conditions may have been associated with the Type 
II radio sweep reported at 24/0242. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
29 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
30 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Overnight depressions observed S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. 
Expect periods of degraded HF conditions for the next few days 
at mid to high latitudes in association with coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jul    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Periods of depressions during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul    65    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
29 Jul    65    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
30 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on 27 July 
and is current for interval 28-29 July. Intense daytime sporadic-E 
observed S. Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect periods of ionospheric 
depression at mid to high latitudes for the next few days in 
association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    8.2 p/cc  Temp:    56600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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