[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 28 09:49:42 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: No significant flare activity was reported today. The
dominant feature on the visible solar disk is an equatorial coronal
hole extending in latitude and south longitude.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 17 4434 3222
Darwin 17 4433 3322
Townsville 16 4433 3222
Learmonth 22 5434 3322
Canberra 14 3334 3222
Hobart 17 4334 4221
Casey(Ant) 21 4533 32--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 78 (Active)
Hobart 100 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 26 3333 4555
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 25 active
29 Jul 30 Active to Minor storm
30 Jul 20 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 26 July and
is current for interval 27-29 July. Minor to major storm periods
observed at high latitudes and unsettled to active conditions
at low to mid latitudes due to a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream. A sustained period of southward IMF Bz polarity
ended abruptly about 0430UT. Solar wind speed declined somewhat
in the latter half of the UT day. Coronal hole wind stream effects
are expected to continue for at least two days due to the longitudinal
extent of the coronal hole. A possible weak transient observed
in solar wind conditions may have been associated with the Type
II radio sweep reported at 24/0242.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
29 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
30 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Overnight depressions observed S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions.
Expect periods of degraded HF conditions for the next few days
at mid to high latitudes in association with coronal hole induced
geomagnetic disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Periods of depressions during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 65 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jul 65 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on 27 July
and is current for interval 28-29 July. Intense daytime sporadic-E
observed S. Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect periods of ionospheric
depression at mid to high latitudes for the next few days in
association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 56600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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