[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             120/72
COMMENT: No significant flare activity was reported today. The 
dominant feature on the visible solar disk is an equatorial coronal 
hole extending in latitude and south longitude. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 26 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2333 3344
      Darwin              16   3333 3344
      Townsville          15   2333 3343
      Learmonth           18   2223 3454
      Canberra            13   2322 3344
      Hobart              12   1322 3343
      Casey(Ant)          13   2333 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   2243 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul    30    Active to Minor storm 
28 Jul    25    active 
29 Jul    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 26 July and 
is current for interval 27-29 July. Solar wind proton fluxes 
increased by an order of magnitude after 1900 UT. An increase 
in solar wind speed and density during the latter half of the 
UT day, accompanied by a sustained period of southward IMF reaching 
-30 nT at the ACE satellite, resulted in unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions at low to mid latitudes and minor storm periods at 
high latitudes. Expect increasingly unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
today, and persisting coronal hole wind stream effects for the 
next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair          
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair          
29 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Expect periods of degraded HF conditions for the next 
few days at mid to high latitudes in association with coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jul    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Isolated depressions of 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. 


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values. 
28 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values with periods of 
                disturbance at high latitudes. 
29 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values with periods of 
                disturbance at high latitudes. 
COMMENT: Intense daytime sporadic-E observed S. Ocean/Antarctic 
regions. Expect increasing periods of disturbance at high latitudes 
in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:    24400 K  Bz:   8 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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