[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 153/108

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several C-class 
flares were recorded- the largest being a C5.2 flare at 
0718UT from region 417(S21W64). The solar wind slowed 
down further and remained between 420 km/s and 460 km/s
throughout the UT day. The N/S component of the 
inter-planetary magnetic field remained mildly but 
predominantly northwards. The solar activity is expected 
to remain at low levels during the next 3 days. Region 
417 showed further growth today whereas region 410(S13W53), 
which is still the largest region on the disk, has further 
simplified. There is slight chance of isolated M-flare 
from region 417. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 397 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 24 Jul. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Mostly quiet with 
isolated unsettled periods. 

Estimated Indices 22 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2122 1122
      Darwin               5   2122 1220
      Townsville           4   1122 1122
      Learmonth            4   2120 ---2
      Canberra             5   1122 2223
      Hobart               4   1112 1121
      Casey(Ant)           9   2332 1131
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   4421 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul    10    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
24 Jul    10    Mostly quiet. 
25 Jul     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The coronal hole induced solar wind stream seems 
to have further slowed down. The geomagnetic activity is 
expected to gradually slow down to 'mostly quiet with 
isolated unsettled periods' on day 1 and to 'mostly quiet' 
levels thereafter. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Jul    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul    82    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%. 
24 Jul    84    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%. 
25 Jul    85    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%. 
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly normal in the 
Australian/NZ regions during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  
Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.