[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 22 09:38:29 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several C-class
flares were recorded- the largest being a C3.3 flare at
0228UT from region 410(S12W40). The solar wind gradually
slowed down from 600 km/s to 430 km/s (approx.) during
the UT day. The N/S component of the inter-planetary
magnetic field remained mildly but predominantly northwards.
The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels
during the next 3 days. Region 417(S21W49) showed some
growth today whereas region 410 has started to decline in
complexity. Region 410 still holds potential for isolated
M-class flare.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 3211 1122
Darwin 4 2211 1123
Townsville 4 3210 0111
Learmonth 4 3210 0021
Canberra 3 2210 1012
Hobart 3 2210 1021
Casey(Ant) 10 3332 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19 5443 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
23 Jul 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
24 Jul 10 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The coronal hole induced solar wind stream seems
to have further slowed down. The geomagnetic activity is
expected to gradually slow down over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor depressions may be observed at high latitudes
at times on 22 July due to possible continued slight elevations
in geomagnetic activity levels. The HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal for two days thereafter.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
23 Jul 82 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
24 Jul 84 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly normal in the
Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list