[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 18 09:53:48 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 139/93

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several C-class 
flares were observed from regions 412(N16E05) and 410(S12E12)- 
the largest being a C9.8 flare at 0824UT from region 412. 
Type II and type IV activities were recorded at Learmonth 
associated with this C9-flare. However, no significant mass 
ejection activity could be associated with these events. 
The solar wind stream is still going strong due to the 
coronal hole effect. The solar wind speed increased from 
580 km/s to 750 km/s (approximately) during the early hours 
of the UT day but then decreased gradually to 560 km/s by 
0900UT. The solar wind speed kept fluctuating between 550 
and 650 km/s (approx.) during the rest of the day. The N/S 
component of the inter-planetary magnetic field remained 
mostly positive, but it fluctuated between +7 and -7nT 
(approx.) during the second half of the UT day. Region 
409(N16E27) still remains the largest region on the disk. 
The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels 
during the next 3 days. However, there is some possibility 
of an M-flare from region 409, 410 and 412. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Mostly unsettled to active 

Estimated Indices 17 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3324 3333
      Darwin              13   3323 3333
      Townsville          13   4223 3323
      Learmonth           14   3224 3333
      Canberra            14   3224 3333
      Hobart              15   3334 3323
      Casey(Ant)          13   3333 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JUL : 
      Townsville          14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            93   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             140   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             48   4566 6445     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul    16    Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
19 Jul    15    Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
20 Jul    17    Mostly unsettled to active. 
COMMENT: The Earth is still under the influence of a coronal 
hole solar wind stream which has produced active and isolated 
minor storm periods during the past 24 hours. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to mostly remain at unsettled levels with 
some possibility of having active periods during the next 2 days 
due to continued strengthening of the solar wind stream by the 
current coronal hole as it is widely spread in the east-west 
directions. There is some possibility of further enhancement 
in the geomagnetic activity on day3 due to a possible effect 
of the C9 flare and Type II and IV observed today. However no 
significant mass ejection could be associated with these events 
until the time of writing this report. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Slight depressions may be observed at high latitudes 
at times during the next three days due to possible mild elevations 
in geomagnetic activity levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 15%. 
19 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%. 
20 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 17 July 
and is current for interval 17-18 July. MUFs are expected to 
remain mostly normal to enhanced by approximately 15% through 
northern Australian/NZ regions during the next three days. Isolated 
periods of minor depressions are possible in southern Australian/NZ 
regions during this period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 589 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   248000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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