[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 17 09:52:18 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 410(S12E28)
produced three C-class flares- C1.3/1223UT, C1.2/1610UT
and C2.9/1635UT. The solar wind speed decreased from 600
km/s to 520 km/s (approximately) during the early hours
of the UT day but then increased gradually to 650 km/s
during the rest of the day. The N/S component of the
inter-planetary magnetic field remained mostly positive,
but it went negative between 0600 and 1100UT and a major
storm was recorded for a short time during this period.
It seems to have been caused by the current coronal hole
effect. The solar activity is expected to remain at low
levels during the next 3 days. However, there is some
possibility of M-flare from region 410 and/or 409(N16E27).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Unsettled to major storm.
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 27 3455 4333
Darwin 21 3444 4333
Townsville 25 2355 4333
Learmonth 28 2355 5334
Canberra 37 3456 5433
Hobart 30 345- 5433
Casey(Ant) 20 3444 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUL :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 110 (Major storm)
Hobart 134 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 27 5535 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 25 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
18 Jul 15 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
19 Jul 12 Mostly unsettled.
COMMENT: The Earth is currently under the influence of a
coronal hole solar wind stream which has produced active
and isolated major storm periods during the past 24 hours.
Active and isolated minor storm periods are again possible
for 17 July, with activity levels declining thereafter.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Slight depressions may be observed at high latitudes
at times on 17 July due to possible mild elevations in the
geomagnetic activity levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 15%.
18 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 15%.
19 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly normal to slightly
enhanced through most of the Australian region during the next
three days. However, isolated periods of minor depressions are
also possible on 17 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 157000 K
Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list