[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 11 09:57:30 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.6 1412UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: M-class flare activity has been observed from region
397, with further isolated M-class flaring possible from solar
regions 397 and 400. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible
in SEC SXI imagery. The wind stream from this hole is expected
from around 11 july.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 1122 3112
Darwin 7 2122 3123
Townsville 4 1122 2112
Learmonth 4 1122 2112
Canberra 5 0122 3111
Hobart 5 0122 3111
Casey(Ant) 5 2222 210-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2212 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 16 Quiet to unsettled with possible active and isolated
minor storm periods.
12 Jul 18 Unsettled with possible active and isolated minor
storm periods.
13 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 8 July and
is current for interval 10-11 July. Mostly unsettled to active
levels are expected for 11-12 July due to an anticipated coronal
hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times
for 11-12 July due to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 70 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
12 Jul 65 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
13 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions possible at times for
mid to high latitudes (southern Aus/NZ region) for 11-12 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B6.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 60100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list