[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.0    2238UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             125/78
COMMENT: An M2-flare was observed from region 400 at 2239UT on 
9 July. Further isolated M class flaring is possible from solar 
regions 397 and 400. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible 
in SEC SXI imagery. The wind stream from this hole is expected 
from around 11 july. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   0211 1012
      Darwin               4   1221 1123
      Townsville           2   0111 1012
      Learmonth            2   0111 0022
      Canberra             1   0110 0012
      Hobart               0   0100 0012
      Casey(Ant)           6   1332 110-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1111 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul     6    Quiet 
11 Jul    15    Unsettled with possible active and isolated minor 
                storm periods. 
12 Jul    18    Unsettled with possible active and isolated minor 
                storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 8 July and 
is current for interval 10-11 July. Quiet conditions expected 
today, then increasing to active conditions 11-12 July, due to 
coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today, then slightly degraded 
conditions expected for 11-12 July. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jul    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul    80    near predicted monthly values 
11 Jul    75    near predicted monthly values 
12 Jul    70    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today, with slightly degraded 
conditions possible at mid to high latitudes (southern Aus/NZ 
region) for 11-12 July. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   143000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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