[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 129/82

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jan             27 Jan             28 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78
COMMENT:  Solar activity  was at low level today. A few 
B and C-class  flares  were observed, the largest being 
a C4.4 at 1855UT  from  region 268(N14W19). The coronal 
hole, due to which the solar wind stream remained strong 
for the last few days, seems  to  have partly disappeard 
behind the limb.  The coronal hole   effect seems to be 
declining  now.  The  solar wind speed  decreased  from
800 km/s to 650 km/s (approx)   during  the UT day. The 
north-south  component of the  inter-planetary magnetic 
field showed  mild fluctuations between north and south 
directions  throughout the day  but most of the time it 
was  mildly   southwards. The   coronal hole  effect is 
expected  to  continue  for approximately  one more day 
or so.  Regions  268 and 266(S21W10) hold potential for 
M-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Mostly unsettled 
to active with isolated periods of minor storm. 

Estimated Indices 25 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   4344 4323
      Darwin              19   4334 4323
      Townsville          20   3344 4423
      Learmonth           19   4334 4322
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              22   3354 4323
      Casey(Ant)          35   5536 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 JAN : 
      Townsville          28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             176   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             29                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   4223 3433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jan    18    Mostly unsettled to active. 
27 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Jan     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: High solar wind speed (800 km/s approx) and long 
periods of negative Bz seem to have kept the geo-magnetic 
activity enhanced upto isolated periods of minor storm level 
today. The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain mostly 
at unsettled to active levels on UT day 26 January, 2002. The 
geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decrease to 
unsettled to quiet levels thereafter. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair          
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions may be expected at high 
latitudes due to enhanced geo-magnetic activity on UT day 
26 January, 2002. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Jan   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressoins and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jan   114    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%. 
27 Jan   118    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
28 Jan   118    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%. 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in the Australian region during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 672 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   286000 K  
Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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