[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 25 10:41:20 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9/1N 0327UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate level today. Region
266(S19E13) was the most active region today. This region
produced an M1.9 flare at 0329 UT. This flare was associated
with a TypeII and a TypeIV radio sweep. A partial halo CME,
seen on the south-east limb around the same time, also seems
to be associated with this event. However, this CME is not
earth directed. Region 266 also produced two C-flares
(C2.8/0509UT and C5.6/1550UT). Regions 268 and 266 are growing
and hold the potential for M-class acitivity. As expected the
solar wind speed remained enhanced due to the coronal
hole effect. The solar wind speed remained between 600 and
700 km/s (approx) during the first half of the UT day and then
rose to approximately 800 km/s during the second half of the
day. The north-south component of the inter-planetary magnetic
field showed mild fluctuations between north and south
directions throughout the day but most of the time it was
mildly southwards. The coronal hole effect is expected to
continue for one to two more days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Mostly unsettled
to active.
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 16 3333 3434
Darwin 15 3333 3334
Townsville 15 3233 3434
Learmonth 16 4233 2433
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 16 3333 3434
Casey(Ant) 19 4--4 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JAN :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 143 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19 5413 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 22 Mostly unsettled to active.
26 Jan 18 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
27 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at unsettled to active levels today with minor
possibility of observing isolated minor storm periods.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decrease
to unsettled to quiet level thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild/moderately degraded conditions expected at
high latitudes due to enhanced geo-magnetic activity during
the next two days. Isolated short periods of minor degradations
may also be observed at mid-latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with short periods
of minor degradations and depressions.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values southern Aus/enhanced
10% northern Aus.
26 Jan 114 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
27 Jan 118 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 23
January and is current for interval 23-25 January. Short
isolated periods of minor degradations may be observed in
the southern Aus/NZ region during the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 640 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 227000 K
Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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