[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 28 10:53:51 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 123/76 125/78 128/81
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. The largest
event was a C1.2 flare at 0158UT from region 288 which
is now on the west limb at approximately N14. The solar
wind speed gradually increased from approximately 420 km/s
to 600 km/s during the first half of the UTday and then
came gradually down to approximately 500 km/s by the time
of writing this report. The north-south component of the
inter-planetary magnetic field showed mild to moderate
fluctuations during the first half of the day. Bz remained
slightly southwards during the second half of the day and
it now seems to be settling around the normal value. All
these variations in the solar wind speed and Bz seem to be
the result of the coronal hole activity which is expected
to continue for approximately one more day.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 276 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 28 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 23 4334 5334
Darwin 23 4334 5334
Townsville 23 4334 5334
Learmonth 31 4334 6444
Canberra 23 4334 5334
Hobart 24 4334 5434
Casey(Ant) 32 4554 43--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 FEB :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 50 (Unsettled)
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period)
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 1244 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 14 Mostly unsettled to active.
01 Mar 12 Quiet to unsettled
02 Mar 10 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: The rise in geo-magnetic activity on UT day 27
February, 2003 has been greater than expected. The coronal
hole actvity seemed to be diminishing yesterday at the
time of prediction, but a stronger than expected solar wind
stream seems to have arrived. Bz also went southward upto
approximately -15nT. This caused a rise in the geo-magnetic
activity upto minor storm level. The solar wind stream seems
to be slowing down again and the coronal hole is also very
close to the limb now. The coronal hole activity is expected
to continue to strengthen the solar wind stream for one more
day. Unsettled to active periods may be expected for most of
the UT day 28 February. The geo-magnetic activity is expected
to further slow down thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradation in HF conditions may be
observed at mid and high latitudes on UT day 28 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressoins and mild to strong
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 95 near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 100 near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 105 about 5% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in Australian/NZ regions on UT day 28 February,
2003. However, short periods of minor depressions in MUFs
may be observed in the Southern Australian/NZ regions
during this period of time. HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal for a few days thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 53000 K
Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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