[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 27 10:50:32 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: The solar activity was very low today. Just a
few B-class flares were observed, the largest being a
B7.8 at 0946UT from region 0290(N18W60). The solar wind
speed remained around 400 km/s in the early hours and
then rose to approximately 470 km/s for about 12 hours
between 0600UT and 1800UT. The solar wind speed then
decreased to approximately 420 km/s. At the time of
writing this report the solar wind speed was again rising
and was approximately 440 km/s. The north-south component
of the inter-planetary magnetic field remained close to
the normal value during the early hours and then showed
minor to moderate fluctuations between north and south
directions. All these variations in the solar wind speed
and Bz seem to be the result of the favourably located
coronal hole on the disk. This coronal hole activity
is expected to continue for approximately two more days.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 276 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 28 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 14 2234 3333
Darwin 14 2234 3333
Townsville 13 1234 3333
Learmonth 12 1224 3334
Canberra 14 3234 3323
Hobart 10 1234 2223
Casey(Ant) 13 2-43 223-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 FEB :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period)
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2112 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 14 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
28 Feb 12 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
01 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Slight rise in geo-magnetic activity may be
expected on 27 and 28 February due to the continuing coronal
hole activity. The geo-magnetic activity is expected to
remain mostly at unsettled level with possibility of isolated
active periods during this period of time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be
expected at mid and high latitudes during the next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with short
periods of minor depressoins.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with short periods
of minor depressions.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 100 near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 100 near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 105 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected remain mostly normal
in Australian/NZ regions during the next two days. However,
short periods of minor depressions in MUFs may be observed
in the Southern Australian/NZ regions during this period of
time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: A9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 77800 K
Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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