[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.2/SF    0918UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Solar region 284 produced several C-class and one M-class 
flare. C-class flares late yesterday and early today were optically 
correlated with eruptive loop prominences on the west limb, observed 
by the Culgoora H-alpha imager. No radio sweeps were reported 
and no CME was observed in LASCO imagery. Region 284 has now 
rotated off the west limb of the visible disk. A large coronal 
hole is now about central meridian and should remain geoeffective 
for the next few days. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3323 3333
      Darwin              13   3323 3334
      Townsville          15   3323 4334
      Learmonth           14   4223 3333
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              15   3323 4333
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 FEB : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   2212 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
16 Feb    17    active 
17 Feb    16    active 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed commenced a steady rise to around 500 
km/s after 5UT. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has exhibited strong fluctuations about neutral, 
with some extended periods of southward polarity resulting in 
active periods at high latitudes. Coronal hole wind stream effects 
should persist for the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions and periods of disturbance observed 
at high latitudes in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Feb   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods
      of disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values Equatorial/PNG 
                region. Depressed 5-10% at times S. Aus/Antarctic 
                region. 
16 Feb    90    near predicted monthly values 
17 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Occasional intense sporadic E observed at high latitude 
stations. Similar conditions are expected today. Generally good 
HF conditions expected today at low to mid latitudes. Variable 
conditions expected at high latitudes subject to coronal hole 
wind stream effects. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   117000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060