[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 15 10:16:28 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2/SF 0918UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar region 284 produced several C-class and one M-class
flare. C-class flares late yesterday and early today were optically
correlated with eruptive loop prominences on the west limb, observed
by the Culgoora H-alpha imager. No radio sweeps were reported
and no CME was observed in LASCO imagery. Region 284 has now
rotated off the west limb of the visible disk. A large coronal
hole is now about central meridian and should remain geoeffective
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 3323 3333
Darwin 13 3323 3334
Townsville 15 3323 4334
Learmonth 14 4223 3333
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 15 3323 4333
Casey(Ant) 19 4--4 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 FEB :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8 2212 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Feb 17 active
17 Feb 16 active
COMMENT: Solar wind speed commenced a steady rise to around 500
km/s after 5UT. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field has exhibited strong fluctuations about neutral,
with some extended periods of southward polarity resulting in
active periods at high latitudes. Coronal hole wind stream effects
should persist for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions and periods of disturbance observed
at high latitudes in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20% over the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods
of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values Equatorial/PNG
region. Depressed 5-10% at times S. Aus/Antarctic
region.
16 Feb 90 near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional intense sporadic E observed at high latitude
stations. Similar conditions are expected today. Generally good
HF conditions expected today at low to mid latitudes. Variable
conditions expected at high latitudes subject to coronal hole
wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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