[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: Only B and minor C-class activity was observed today. 
Active regions on the visible disk are relatively simple in magnetic 
structure and the chance of M-class activity remains low. There 
is a chance of a possible weak shock arrival late 14 to early 
15 Feb. from yestrday's C8 flare. Elevated solar wind speed effects 
due to a coronal hole are expected 15 to 19 Feb. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 266 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 14 Feb. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3222 2113
      Darwin               8   3322 2123
      Townsville           5   2212 2123
      Learmonth            3   2112 2002
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               5   2222 2112
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 23--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   2223 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb    12    Unsettled 
15 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
16 Feb    17    active 
COMMENT: At the time of report issue, the north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field had been trending significantly 
southward for some hours, and solar wind speed was mildly elevated 
at around 400 km/s. No significant terrestrial geomagnetic activity 
has been observed in that time by the IPS magnetometer network. 
Active conditions expected after Feb 15 due to a coronal hole 
moving into geoeffective location. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed briefly after local dawn at 
low and some mid-latitude stations. Isolated periods of disturbance 
at high latitudes. Disturbed conditions can be expected 15-19 
Feb due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic effects. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Feb   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Briefly depressed after local dawn.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night/early morning.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods
      of disturbance. 


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb   120    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Feb    80    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
16 Feb    80    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected today. Disturbed 
HF conditions expected 15-19 Feb in association with solar coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    63100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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