[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Feb             12 Feb             13 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3443 2233
      Darwin              17   -533 2234
      Townsville          15   3343 23-3
      Learmonth           13   4333 1233
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              18   2354 2233
      Casey(Ant)          21   3543 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   3342 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Feb     7    Quiet 
12 Feb     6    Quiet 
13 Feb     6    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Feb    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 10-15% to near predicted montly
      values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Feb    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
12 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Lower than normal MUFs observed yesterday. Improved 
conditions generally expected today. Some regional variability 
seems to be persisting with Darwin and Townsville MUFs currently 
depressed 25%, and other IPS stations near normal, at time of 
issue of this report. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 459 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    93600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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