[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: **YELLOW**
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Feb             11 Feb             12 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89
COMMENT: Numerous small regions currently on disk. Coronal hole 
elevated solar wind speed continued slow decline now at 450km/sec. 
Bz again fluctauting +/-5nT around neutral. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 09 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3222 2033
      Darwin              15   4332 3-33
      Townsville          12   3332 3-23
      Learmonth           14   4232 3-33
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              12   3232 3-33
      Casey(Ant)           4   3000 0031
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   3233 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Feb     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Feb     7    Quiet 
12 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: One isolated active period observed late in UT day,
due to coronal hole wind stream and fluctuating Bz. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Moderate degration in HF conditions expected early today 
at mid to high latitudes, then improving. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Feb   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Feb    75    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
11 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 9 February 
and is current for interval 10 February only. Ionospheric conditions 
have been variable over past few days, with some sites depressed 
(particularly after local dawn) and others enhanced. This variability 
is believed due to coronal hole induced effects. Southern region Aus 
MUFs are again depressed after local dawn this morning. MUFs 
depressions do not seem to persist however, and a general recovery 
is expected by 4UT today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   151000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060