[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 31 10:27:51 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 85/27
COMMENT: Only very minor flare activity has been observed over
the past 24 hours. Significant solar radio noise emission has
been reported. Active region 528 is now approaching the west
limb and has shown signs of decay in areal coverage and magnetic
complexity. Recurrence suggests the return of a coronal hole
structure into geoeffective position about Dec 31.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 1211 1123
Darwin 4 1220 1123
Townsville 3 1111 1123
Learmonth 5 0210 1233
Culgoora 3 1101 1123
Canberra 4 1111 1223
Hobart 3 0111 2123
Casey(Ant) 13 33-- 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1123 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 18 active
01 Jan 25 active
02 Jan 20 active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today
at low to mid latitudes. Isolated unsettled periods were observed
at high latitudes. Solar wind velocity has remained reasonably
steady at 400 km/s until late in the UT day, when an increasing
trend was observed. The north-south component of the IMF has
also shown increasing polarity fluctuations late in the UT day,
which may indicate the onset of the anticipated coronal hole
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
02 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Expect continuing generally good HF conditions today
at low latitudes. Solar wind parameters indicate the possible
onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream about the time
of report issue. Expect periods of degradations in HF conditions
mainly at mid to high latitudes for the next two to three days,
possibly extending to 11 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15-20% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15-20% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 75 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The post-dawn improving trend observed yesterday did
not continue into the day, and regional MUFs were somewhat less
than for previous days, but still well above normal monthly values.
Extended periods of spread-F conditions were observed at high
latitudes. Isolated periods of intense sporadic-E conditions
were observed at some mid-latitude stations. Solar wind parameters
indicate the possible onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind
stream early today. Expect periods of degradation and disturbance
mainly at mid to high latitudes for the next few days, possibly
extending into next week.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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