[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 30 10:01:40 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: The sun has been flare quiet over the past 24 hours.
A disappearing solar filament with faint, non earth-directed
CME was reported in the south-eastern quadrant at 2240 UT. Active
region 528 is now approaching the west limb and has shown signs
of decay in areal coverage and magnetic complexity. Recurrence
suggests the return of a coronal hole structure into geoeffective
position about Dec 31.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 2122 2312
Darwin 5 2122 2213
Townsville 7 2122 2312
Learmonth 8 2213 2312
Culgoora 7 2122 2311
Canberra 7 2122 2312
Hobart 7 2122 2311
Casey(Ant) 15 4--4 2312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 DEC :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 3323 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Jan 25 Active
COMMENT: Solar wind velocities remained around 500km/s until
about 16UT, then declined rapidly to 400 km/s at the time of
report issue. North-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field has remained mostly northward, resulting in mostly quiet
geomagnetic conditions at low to mid latitudes. Isolated active
to minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes. Expect
continuing quiet conditions today, with solar wind velocity still
declining. Recurrence suggests a return to active conditions
about Dec 31 due to a returning coronal hole structure.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Expect generally good HF conditions for the next two
days at low to mid latitudes. Degraded HF conditions possible
at mid to high latitudes 31 Dec to 01 Jan, possibly extending
to 11 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 120 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 90 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected next two days
at low to mid latitudes with significant enhancements in propagation
conditions observed again after local dawn today. Evening spread-F
conditions observed S. Aus/NZ region. Periods of sporadic-E and
spread-F conditions observed and expected at high latitudes.
Recurrence suggests that degraded HF conditions may be experienced
31 Dec to 11 Jan, for southern region Aus/NZ and Antarctica.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 240000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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