[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 4 10:23:06 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 02/2300UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: The M1 event late in the UT day on 02 Dec was on the
far western limb of the Sun, probably from departing region 508.
Solar wind conditions nominal over past 24 hours. A thin broad
coronal hole is visible streching across the solar disk. This
hole has a broad recurrent pattern over the past five solar rotations.
An extended period of increase solar wind activity is probable
06-15 Dec. The 10MeV proton event which began 02 Dec 1505UT following
the long duration xray enhancement from region 508, which peaked
at M1.4 at 1308UT on 02 Dec, has ended at 2135UT on 03 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 1221 1212
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 3 1111 1212
Learmonth 5 1321 1201
Culgoora 3 1121 1201
Canberra 3 1121 1201
Hobart 4 1221 1201
Casey(Ant) 11 3--3 2323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 DEC :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3232 3231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec 12 Unsettled
06 Dec 18 active
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions expected next two days.
Afterwhich a gradual increase in activity is expected. In particular
recurrence suggests that an extended period of active conditions
with minor storm periods can be expected from 08 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : Began at 1505UT 02/12, Ended at 2135UT 03/12
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions at high latitudes improving due to ending
of 10MeV proton event. Normal HF conditions expected until 06
Nov, afterwhich degraded conditions are likely at mid to high
latitudes due to anticapted entry of the Earth into a coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Increased absorption observed.
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 105 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Dec 105 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Dec 70 Initially enhanced 15% then becoming depressed
15%
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs expected to continue for next two to three
days. Depressed MUFs may be experienced after 06/07 Dec in southern
region Aus/NZ region due to anticpated Earth entry into a coronal
hole wind stream. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain
near to 15% above normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 93100 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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