[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 137/91

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             120/72
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. Several C-class 
flares were observed- the largest being a C6.9 from region 
324(S11W62) at 0916UT. The solar wind speed remained between 
440 and 500 km/s (approx) for most of the day, but showed a 
gradual increase to approximately 550 km/s after 1700UT. At 
the time of report the solar wind speed was nearly steady at 
550 km/s. The north-south component of the inter-planetary 
magnetic showed mild to moderate fluctuations throughout the 
UT day and caused rise in geomagnetic activity to active  
levels. Two partial halo CMEs were observed soon after the M1 
flare of 04 April- one from the north-west and one from the 
south-west limb. Weak shock may arrive on late 06 April or 
early 07 April. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3332 3443
      Darwin              14   3322 3343
      Townsville          15   3332 3343
      Learmonth           25   3332 4553
      Canberra            16   2332 3443
      Hobart              14   2332 3344
      Casey(Ant)          19   34-4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              68   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             26   4355 5344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
07 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
08 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained higher than 
expected today seemingly due to sustained mild to moderate 
fluctuations in Bz between the north and south directions 
and due to the further strengthning in the solar wind speed 
in the second half of the UT day. The geomagnetic activity 
may remain elevated during the next two days due to enhanced 
solar wind speed, possibility of arrival of weak shock on 06 
or 07 April, and also if the currently observed fluctuation 
in Bz continue. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair          
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair          
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild degradations in HF 
conditions may be observed during the next two days on 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Apr    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of mild to moderate depressions
      and degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr    92    near predicted monthly values 
07 Apr    92    near predicted monthly values 
08 Apr    96    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed 
in southern Aus/NZregion during the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 496 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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