[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Low

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    2019UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 153/108

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            145/99
COMMENT: The solar activity was low to moderate today. 
Several C-class and an M1 flares were observed. The M1 
flare was produced by the region 234(S08W40) at 2019UT. 
About one hour after this M1 flare, indistinct radio 
sweep was observed on Culgoora spectrograph, but being 
in the proximity of the local dawn its shape was not 
clear and it could not be classified. The solar wind 
speed did not decrease as per expectations as the coronal 
hole solar wind stream did not weaken as was expected. The 
solar wind speed fluctuated between 460 and 520 km/s (approx) 
throughout the UT day. The north-south component of the 
inter-planetary magnetic field showed mild fluctuation in the 
second half of the UT day and caused rise in geomagnetic 
activity to minor storm level for a short time. The coronal 
hole activity is expected to decline during the next two days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Mostly unsettled to 
active.  Isolated minor storm periods observed. 

Estimated Indices 04 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   3344 4333
      Darwin              16   3333 4333
      Townsville          18   3334 4334
      Learmonth           21   3334 5334
      Canberra            20   3344 4333
      Hobart              23   3344 5333
      Casey(Ant)          28   4544 4343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 APR : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            59   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              81   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   3233 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
06 Apr    12    Unsettled 
07 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Short periods of minor storm were recorded today as 
Bz stayed southwards for several hours during the second half 
of the UT day. The coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity 
is expected to decline during the next 24 hours. However, if 
Bz keeps fluctuating predominantly in the southward direction, 
the decline in the geo-magnetic activity may be less than 
otherwise expected. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair          
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair          
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions expected to improve over 
the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Apr    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with
      periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr   100    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
06 Apr   102    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
07 Apr   104    2 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to remain mostly normal for 
the southern Aus/NZregion during the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060