[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 164/118

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            160/114
COMMENT: The solar activity was low on 23 October. The 
largest event was a C6.6 flare. Region 162 (N26E10) is 
still the largest region on the disk and holds potential 
for M-class flare. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field has been mildly northward 
for most of the day. Bz turned southward around 1600UT 
and has stayed southward since then. The solar wind 
speed gradually decreased from 460 to 400 km/s (approx) 
over the UT day with some fluctuations. The large coronal 
hole on the solar disc is expected to increase wind speed 
during interval 26-29 Oct. However, if IMF orientation 
remains northward effects will be reduced. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   1212 3323
      Darwin               7   1212 2323
      Townsville           7   1112 3323
      Learmonth            6   1112 2324
      Canberra             8   1221 3323
      Hobart               5   1221 2223
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--3 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3214 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Oct    12    Unsettled 
26 Oct    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 22 October 
and is current for interval 26-29 October. Coronal hole 
induced activity may be experienced 26-29 Oct. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: A coronal hole induced degradation is probable 
26-29 Oct. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Oct   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 20% with some periods of
      depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct   120    near predicted monthly values 
25 Oct   120    near predicted monthly values 
26 Oct   115    Depressed 15% to normal 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 504 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   121000 K  
Bz:   3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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