[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            165/119
COMMENT: Solar wind speed started the day at 700km/sec declining 
to 600km/sec. Elevated wind speed due to solar coronal hole. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
fluctuated mildly southward (5nT) over the UT day. Solar region 
198 has started to show some signs of decay, isolated M class 
events remain possible. Some emmission can be seen on the north-east 
limb in SOHO EIT EUV imagery. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 175 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 23 Nov. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   3334 4333
      Darwin              17   3334 4323
      Townsville          16   3334 3333
      Learmonth           13   3223 4321
      Canberra            18   3334 4333
      Hobart              19   3334 4423
      Casey(Ant)          25   4-44 4433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 NOV : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            98   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             100   (Minor storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             50   3576 5444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
24 Nov    11    Unsettled 
25 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 20 November 
and is current for interval 21-23 November. Active periods observed 
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream. A decline in activity 
is expected.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Nov   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
24 Nov   100    near predicted monthly values 
25 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions may be experienced early today at some 
sites. Generally improving HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 674 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   303000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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