[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 22 10:30:12 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions over the past 24 hours have been
disturbed. A possible "solar sector boundary crossing" was apparent
in the ACE data around 00UT on 21 Nov. Solar wind density rapidly
increased prior to this at 21UT on 20 Nov, and remained at high
densities till 06 UT on 21 Nov. The north-south component of
the IMF unexpectedly became strongly southward 02-07 UT, peaking
at 30nT south around 04-05 UT. Solar wind spped was relative
stable at 480km/sec until 06UT on 21 Nov, after which solar wind
speed increased to 700 km/sec and wind density rapidly dropped
to low values, characteristic with a solar coronal hole wind
stream. The large southward value of Bz is not normaly associated
with coronal holes, and together with the high wind density suggest
that these values are associated with "turbulence" at the discontinuity
between the quiet solar wind and the solar wind from the coronal
hole stream. Since the Earth has now entered the coronal hole
stream further episodes of strong southward IMF are not expected.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 175 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 23 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Unsettled to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 40 5565 4333
Darwin 29 5454 4334
Townsville 32 5455 4333
Learmonth 37 5455 5433
Canberra 34 4564 4333
Hobart 38 4565 4433
Casey(Ant) 53 5675 4334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 NOV :
Townsville 18 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 119 (Major storm)
Hobart 168 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 55
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17 3313 2444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 20 active
23 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
24 Nov 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 20 November
and is current for interval 21-23 November. Unexpected major
storm levels observed as Earth transitioned into coronal hole
high speed wind stream. Active conditions expected today, then
declining.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Strong degradation in HF conditions observed at mid
to high latitudes over past 24 hours. Improved conditions expected
today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 80 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 85 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 90 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Stronger than expected geomagnetic activity observed
overnight. Variable conditions observed after local dawn this
morning. Unusually, depressions were observed at some northern
Aus region sites only (normally higher latitudes stations are
most effected).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.2E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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