[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/2B    1323UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 191/143


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            180/133
COMMENT: Region 180 produced an M-class flare and several C class 
flares. The M4 level flare had a reported type II/IV radio sweep 
associated and produced a semi halo CME in the western solar 
hemisphere, which will possibly be geoeffective on or around 
Nov 12. Region 191 produced an impulsive flare of high C-class 
intensity. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1755UT 
on 09 Nov. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2121 0123
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           5   2121 0133
      Learmonth            5   1021 0235
      Canberra             3   1021 0123
      Hobart               3   1021 0123
      Casey(Ant)          10   3333 1123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   2222 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov    12    Unsettled 
11 Nov    20    active 
12 Nov    20    active 
COMMENT: A moderate step increase in solar wind speed, and slightly 
elevated geomagnetic activity were observed after 18UT. Increased 
magnetic disturbance is expected over the next few days as a 
northern solar hemisphere coronal hole rotates into geoeffective 
location. There is also a possibility of disturbance due to recent 
flare activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 09 11 2002 1950UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
11 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Increased absorption observed at Antarctic stations 
due to PCA event in progress. Expect similar conditions to continue 
today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Nov   170

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 
                15% for Northern regions with possible depressions 
                of 15% at times for Southern regions. 
11 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 
                15% for Northern regions with possible depressions 
                of 15% at times for Southern regions. 
12 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 
                15% for Northern regions with possible depressions 
                of 15% at times for Southern regions. 
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions are generally good but coronal 
hole and solar flare induced disturbance is possible over the 
next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    39900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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