[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 189/142


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low. A long duration C7 flare 
produced a mass ejection which appeared mainly south-west directed. 
An earlier impulsive flare produced a north-west directed CME. 
Neither CME appears earth-directed. The probable source is region 
180, which remains magnetically complex. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2223 2112
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           6   2113 202-
      Learmonth            5   2222 1111
      Canberra             6   2213 2012
      Hobart               4   2112 1111
      Casey(Ant)          10   3-33 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 NOV : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            70   (Active)
      Hobart              78   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   4333 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Nov    12    Unsettled 
11 Nov    20    active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parmeters indicate that present coronal hole 
effects are declining. There is the small chance of a glancing 
blow from weak CME activity observed during 7 November on 10 
November that may produce a slight increase in geomagnetic activity. 
Further coronal hole activity is expected to commence on 11 November. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Nov   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
11 Nov   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly good for the next few 
days. Higher HF frequencies may be affected by coronal hole induced 
disturbance expected to commence around Nov 11. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 561 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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