[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 161/115

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3333 3334
      Darwin              16   4333 3335
      Townsville          15   3333 3335
      Learmonth           21   4333 3354
      Canberra            17   3243 3434
      Hobart              21   3344 4434
      Casey(Ant)          14   4332 3233
      Davis(Ant)          13   2333 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   4322 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
16 May    12    Quiet to unsettled 
17 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the Earth is currently 
under the influence of a weak coronal hole solar wind stream, 
which may produce further active periods for 15 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions may be possible at times 
for Southern Australian and New Zealand regions for 15 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
14 May   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to depressed
      10-20% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May   130    Depressed 5-15% at times to enhanced 5-15%. 
16 May   140    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
17 May   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions may be possible at times 
for Southern Australian and New Zealand regions for 15 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    89600 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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