[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 172/126

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 May             15 May             16 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            170/124



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3312 2112
      Darwin               8   3--2 222-
      Townsville           8   3211 322-
      Learmonth            6   2211 3213
      Canberra             4   2202 2113
      Hobart               4   2212 2102
      Casey(Ant)           9   3422 2101
      Davis(Ant)          11   3332 31--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             19   4352 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 May    16    Unsettled to active 
15 May    12    Unsettled 
16 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity resulting from the M1-flare on 
11 May is now expected to be less significant than initially 
anticipated. Mostly unsettled to active levels are now expected 
for 14 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible for 14-15 
May following the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with 
the M1-flare observed at 1134UT on 11 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
13 May   129

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 May   130    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
15 May   140    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
16 May   150    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible for 14-15 
May following the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with 
the M1-flare observed at 1134UT on 11 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   145000 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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