[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 12 09:59:59 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 1132UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 188/141
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 190/143
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0924UT on
11 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 23 1225 5444
Darwin 26 2335 5445
Townsville 23 1225 5445
Learmonth 30 2225 5554
Canberra 20 1124 4545
Hobart 23 1124 4554
Casey(Ant) 7 -2-- ----
Davis(Ant) 14 1224 4333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 MAY :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 17 2234 4434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 15 Unsettled with possible active periods.
13 May 10 Quiet to unsettled
14 May 20 Quiet to unsettled with possible active and minor
storm periods.
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicated another CME impacted
the Earth at 0924UT on 11 May, the source of which is unclear.
Active to minor storm periods followed. Geomagnetic activity
should be mostly unsettled to active for 12 May, with further
storm periods again possible for 14 May as the result of the
M1-flare observed at 1134UT on 11 May.
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1015UT on 11 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions possible at times for
12 May following the impact of the CME at 0924UT on 11 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
11 May 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 10-15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 110 Depressed 5-15% at times to enhanced 15%.
13 May 145 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 May 125 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions possible at times for
12 May following the impact of the CME at 0924UT on 11 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 19.6 p/cc Temp: 56200 K Bz: 1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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