[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1132UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 188/141

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            190/143

A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0924UT on 
11 May. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 11 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   1225 5444
      Darwin              26   2335 5445
      Townsville          23   1225 5445
      Learmonth           30   2225 5554
      Canberra            20   1124 4545
      Hobart              23   1124 4554
      Casey(Ant)           7   -2-- ----
      Davis(Ant)          14   1224 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             17   2234 4434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May    15    Unsettled with possible active periods. 
13 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 
14 May    20    Quiet to unsettled with possible active and minor 
                storm periods. 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicated another CME impacted 
the Earth at 0924UT on 11 May, the source of which is unclear. 
Active to minor storm periods followed. Geomagnetic activity 
should be mostly unsettled to active for 12 May, with further 
storm periods again possible for 14 May as the result of the 
M1-flare observed at 1134UT on 11 May. 
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1015UT on 11 May. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
14 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions possible at times for 
12 May following the impact of the CME at 0924UT on 11 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
11 May   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 10-15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May   110    Depressed 5-15% at times to enhanced 15%. 
13 May   145    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
14 May   125    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions possible at times for 
12 May following the impact of the CME at 0924UT on 11 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:   19.6 p/cc  Temp:    56200 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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