[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 191/143

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 May             12 May             13 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            200/152            195/147

A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1029UT on 10 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   2234 2333
      Darwin              13   2234 2334
      Townsville          12   2224 2333
      Learmonth           13   2134 3334
      Canberra             8   1124 2223
      Hobart               8   2133 2223
      Casey(Ant)          15   33-- ----
      Davis(Ant)          11   2323 323-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   2233 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 May    16    Unsettled to active 
12 May    12    Quiet to unsettled 
13 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters showed typical characteristics 
of the passage of a CME, which was most likely the result of 
recent solar events. Geomagnetic activity only reached active 
levels as Bz remained predominantly northward. Unsettled to active 
levels are expected for 11 May. 
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1124UT on 10 May. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions possible at times for 
11 May following the weak impact of the M1/CME shock arrival. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
10 May   157

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all
stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 May   135    Depressed 5-15% at times to enhanced 15%. 
12 May   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
13 May   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions possible at times for 
11 May following the weak impact of the M1/CME shock arrival. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    66500 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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