[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 170/124

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            170/124



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2221 2322
      Learmonth            7   2211 2323
      Canberra             7   1221 232-
      Hobart               5   2221 2213
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
      Davis(Ant)          10   3332 1311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             47   5566 4533     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar     8    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
27 Mar     6    Mostly quiet. 
28 Mar     5    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: A shock was observed in the solar wind at 0058/25 March 
but it did not have any significant effect on the geo-magnetic 
activity as Bz remained northward for long time after the shock. 
The geo-magnetic activity remained from quiet to unsettled for 
most of the time. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
25 Mar   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Degraded by upto 35% to enhanced by 30% during the UT
      day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Degraded by upto 30% to near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar   160    Near monthly predicted values to enhanced by 15%
27 Mar   165    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
28 Mar   165    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    39200 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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