[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 175/129

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            165/119



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 24 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      31   4445 4534
      Learmonth           27   4335 3545
      Canberra            32   3455 4534
      Hobart              35   3455 5533
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
      Davis(Ant)          26   5533 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          17   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   1002 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
26 Mar     8    Mostly quiet. May reach isolated unsettled levels. 
27 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the late hours (around 
2010UT/24 March). The geomagnetic activity rose to active level 
and then to minor storm level. Bz remained southward for long 
duration (approximately from 0200 UT to 1800UT) and seems to 
have caused the increase in the geomagnetic activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : Began at 2330UT 22/03, Ended at 0115UT 23/03
 and, Began at 1320UT 23/03, Ended at 1450UT 23/03
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor depressions were observed on MUFs on high latitudes 
on 24 March. Minor depressions in MUFs may also be expected on 
25 March on high latitudes due to increased geomagnetic activity 
on 25 March. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
24 Mar   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar   155    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
26 Mar   160    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
27 Mar   170    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The current increase in geomagnetic activity did not 
have any significant effect on MUFs around Australian region. 
The geo-magnetic activity is expected to decrease to unsettled 
level by the second half of 25 March, and therefore, the MUFs 
are expected to remain normal on 25, 26 and 27 March around Australian 
region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    66500 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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