[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 139/93

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jun             29 Jun             30 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

No major solar event was observed on 27June2002. 
The solar wind speed has decreased from 440km/s to 
360km/s over the last 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 0001
      Darwin               2   1111 0112
      Townsville           1   0101 0012
      Learmonth            0   0000 0000
      Canberra             0   0000 0001
      Hobart               0   0000 0001
      Casey(Ant)           1   1210 0000
      Davis(Ant)           3   2121 1011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3212 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jun     7    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
29 Jun     7    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
30 Jun     7    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: Bz rmained mostly southwards until approximately 1500UT/ 
27 June. Fluctuations in Bz reduced during this period. Bz is 
now settling northwards. The solar wind speed has also reduced 
from 440km/s to 360km/s(approx.) over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain at quiet level for most of the 
day on 28June 2002. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Since the geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet level on 28 and 29 June, the HF conditions are 
expected to remain normal during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
27 Jun   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to 
      enhanced by upto 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jun   112    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced upto 
                15%. 
29 Jun   112    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced upto 
                15%. 
30 Jun   112    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced upto 
                15%. 
COMMENT: Since the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
at quiet levels for most of the time on 28 and 29 June 2002, 
the HF conditions are expected to remain normal during this 
period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+i04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 459 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    83300 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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