[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 144/98

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 1211
      Darwin               4   2211 1212
      Townsville           3   2101 1112
      Learmonth            3   2200 0201
      Canberra             2   2100 0201
      Hobart               2   2000 0200
      Casey(Ant)           5   3211 1211
      Davis(Ant)          11   4222 23--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3223 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun     8    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
28 Jun     8    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
29 Jun     8    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: Bz kept fluctuating between north and south directions 
during the first half on day 26June/2002. Bz stayed southwards 
for most of the time in the second half of 26June. The geo-magnetic 
activity may rise to unsettled levels on 27 June if Bz continues 
to fluctuate or stays predominantly southwards. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
26 Jun   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted values to enhanced by upto 35%
      with short periods of depressions  upto 30%. 


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced upto 
                15%. 
28 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced upto 
                15%. 
29 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced upto 
                15%. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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