[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 150/105

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jun             26 Jun             27 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            145/99
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field, Bz, was mildly southward, and solar wind speed was moderately 
elevated at 460km/sec. A solar filament near N40W06 has been 
reported to have erupted overnight. This may produce a weak shock 
signature late 26 June. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2221 1111
      Darwin               5   2221 1212
      Townsville           4   2211 1112
      Learmonth            4   2221 1101
      Canberra             2   1211 1000
      Hobart               1   1111 0001
      Casey(Ant)           8   2332 2112
      Davis(Ant)          11   3333 21--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   2333 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jun    12    Unsettled 
26 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
27 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Chance of active periods on 26 June due to recent filament 
eruption. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
24 Jun   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jun   110    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jun   110    near predicted monthly values 
27 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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